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Wavepacket Blog

Thu May 8 21:37:23 2008 Bad Gas A bad idea that will likely make the problem worse.
Family Truckster, courtesy of Chrysler. Image courtesy of User:Asterion (wiki) I've been reading a lot lately about the supply and demand of oil, and the impact on gas prices. (See High Oil and Gas Prices and Peak Oil, for instance). In the 1970's, high gas prices made consumers buy more energy-efficient cars, or back off on buying new cars altogether. And the same thing is happening now. Chrysler has gotten worried about that (not surprising, given their double-digit sales declines). In response, they are now offering a guaranteed price of 2.99 per gallon for 3 years. That way, you can buy a car with low gas mileage, but not worry about your fuel costs exploding in the future. They have a few caveats. They don't let you buy more than a certain amount each year. Premium gas costs a bit more. And they have attempted to limit their own exposure by "using a hedging strategy." Practically, that can only mean they are placing orders for options to buy gas in the future at limited prices. The idea is that consumers don't have to worry about gas prices anymore, so people can go on buying cars again as if gas was still cheap! And as the article notes, "...other carmakers will be watching the program closely as everyone grapples with the negative effect of fuel costs on sales." Chrysler may make some money in the short term, especially if they are the first and only to market for a while. It could be a way to shore up sales while they update their product line with more gas-efficient models. But in the long term, this is a bad idea for everyone. The high cost of oil doesn't go away. Chrysler can hide it behind slightly higher auto costs, or pass it on to other speculators via their hedging strategy. But if oil costs keep climbing--and they probably will--then eventually Chrysler won't be able to buy the options necessary to fund the program. Given the uncertainties in supply, I suspect 3-year gasoline options will become expensive very fast, especially if multiple automakers want to buy them in volume. So as a gimmick, this could work in the short term. But it just means more people will buy less efficient vehicles for a while longer, and that will ultimately push gas prices up even more. Comments	Related: economics energy Unrelated: books environment geopolitics lists mathematics predictions science

Wed May 7 21:39:24 2008 Human Nature Top Books on Human Nature
Something else to think about. Image courtesy of User:CJ (wiki) For most of history, human nature was the domain of philosophers, theologians, and writers of novels. It was thought to be beyond the realm of mathematics or science, either because the soul was considered supernatural or because it was just a hard problem. But then I think there were two things that happened in the 20th century that opened the door to the scientific study of human nature. And now scientists and mathematicians are expanding the study of human nature, properly exploring the hard questions that had been examined but never solved by previous generations of philosophers and theologians. The first breakthrough was the publication of The Theory of Games and Economic Behavior by John von Neumann and Oskar Morgenstern. That laid the foundations for game theory. Suddenly scientists had a way to analyze and model how multiple agents could cooperate or compete in a variety of economic (ie, real-world) scenarios. The second enabler was the discovery (or more accurately, the first plausible physical description of) DNA. The double helix solved what had been a long-standing problem: how genetic information was passed down in plants and animals--basically anything living on Earth that we know of. The understanding of genetics, plus game theory, helped bring about a new field: evolutionary psychology. I think the wikipedia definition is good: "Evolutionary psychology ... is a theoretical approach to psychology that attempts to explain mental and psychological traits -- such as memory, perception, or language -- as adaptations, that is, as the functional products of natural selection..." But let's face it, that's basically the study of human nature, with the hypothesis (now well-tested) that human nature has evolved as a set of adaptations. Given this recent revolution, where a whole field of study was recently opened up to investigation, what do I (as an outsider to the field) consider the best books for the layman? Here is my list, in chronological order: 1976: The Selfish Gene by Richard Dawkins. Although not strictly about evolutionary psychology, it is the clearest book I know on a fundamental issue of evolution: genes evolved for themselves, not us. It shook up evolutionary biology at the time, and his viewpoint is still what guides practically all studies of evolution, whether biological or psychological. It is surprisingly readable even today. [As an aside, read the first review on Amazon.com. Clearly that reviewer was impacted by the implications for human nature as well! Although I think the reviewer missed the difference between science and religion, and suffered for years as a result. Evolutionary psychology has nothing to say about God or His purpose. You can believe in both.] 1992: The Third Chimpanzee by Jared Diamond. The book is subtitled "The Evolution and Future of the Human Animal." Oddly, his other books such as Guns, Germs and Steel and Collapse, seem to be more well-known. But I consider "The Third Chimpanzee" to be his best work. The chapter names alone tell you that he is addressing key human behaviors ("How we pick our mates and sex partners", "Why do we smoke, drink, and use dangerous drugs?"). And the last chapters of the book lay down the basic themes that he picks up in more detail in his later books. 1994: The Language Instinct by Steven Pinker, subtitled "How the Mind Creates Language". Although some reviewers now question his exact theories of language mechanisms, he is an excellent writer that conveys some key learnings about language development. One of the reasons this book makes the list is that it is a fun and engaging read. You start to pick up on how the mind has been built and evolved from multiple components over time, a theme that led to his next book... 1997: How the Mind Works. This book is one of the better surveys, in my mind (no pun intended). Just as readable as his "The Language Instinct", but now focused on the computational theory of the mind, rather than language specifically. A great read! Darwin has the last laugh. Image courtesy of User:Stw (wiki) Honorable Mention These are books that came to mind, but didn't make my mental list of "best" books for one reason or another. 1978: On Human Nature by Edward O. Wilson. No listing of books on human nature would be complete without it! Although I found it a good read, I didn't find it as groundbreaking idea-wise as the other books on the list, or as memorable. But it deserves mention since many other readers consider it the definitive work on the subject. 1995: An Anthropologist on Mars by Oliver Sacks. (Another good title would be The Man Who Mistook His Wife for a Hat, 1985). Although not about evolutionary psychology, Oliver Sacks has studied the brain for a long time. If you have spent any time debugging computer programs, attempting to figure out what is broken inside by observing external behavior, you will be powerfully impacted by Sacks' description of how he had to debug the neurological conditions of his patients. Great works, and they don't make the list only because they are slightly off-topic. After reading "An Anthropologist on Mars", I was struck by some of the similarities between myself and the title character, who was autistic but functional (and successful!). I wondered if I was autistic! So I took some online autism tests like this one and quickly reassured myself that no, I am not autistic. Most Importantly... Most importantly, keep a sense of perspective. As far as evolutionary psychology has taken us, and as far as it has to go, I'm surprised at how we keep coming back to the basics. And for that, you can't beat Voltaire's Candide. It is short, and remarkably relevant after almost 250 years (especially if you consider the context in which it was written). If you could only read one book on human nature, this is probably it. Comments	Related: lists mathematics books Unrelated: economics energy environment geopolitics predictions science

Thu May 1 21:18:45 2008 Al-Jazeera Cameraman Sami al-Haj is released after 6 years.
In Reporters Sans Frontieres I mentioned the al-Jazeera cameraman who had been imprisoned at Guantanamo for the past 6 years. I learned about him only in passing, since his imprisonment was one of the reasons that Reporters Without Borders ranked the US fairly low in press freedoms relative to the rest of the world. Today I saw in the headlines that Sami al-Haj has been freed. He was apparently bundled up on a plane and flown to the Sudan. No explanation for his years of detention has been given. I can only assume that his unnannounced and unexplained release, coming so soon after my entry, is due to the impact of my blog. Perhaps now that he was released our Press Freedoms ranking will climb a bit! The US State Department should release a Guantanamo prisoner each year, to boost our rank. Comments	Related: geopolitics Unrelated: books economics energy environment lists mathematics predictions science

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