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| Sun Oct 7 17:40:58 2012 Mt Baker Prediction |
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| Wed Aug 15 22:37:13 2012 Eurozone |
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| Thu Mar 24 22:46:19 2011 Bankrupt Portugal |
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| Sun Oct 7 17:40:58 2012 Mt Baker Prediction How much snow will Mt Baker get in 2012-2013? |
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| Well, it is getting close to the 2012-2013 ski season. How much snow will Mt
Baker get? (I'm talking about the ski area).
I'm guessing around 600 inches this year. That's pretty good for most ski areas, but low for Mt Baker. Still, I think it will be a decent year, since although less precipitation is expected, it is supposed to stay cold. Historically, snowfall is influenced by ocean heating events such as El Nino (warmer than usual surface water in the tropical Pacific) and La Nina (colder than usual water). Oddly, the impacts aren't 100% predictable (you can get more or less snow with either) but generally they can influence predictions. The 2012-2013 season is expected to be an El Nino year, according to The Weather Centre. There are all sorts of El Nino years, apparently. This one is a "mainly west El Nino", meaning the warmer surface water is more to the west. That means as much to me as it does to you. Anyway, what have previous El Nina years looked like? Here is the list of total snowfall per year at Mt Baker, courtesy of bestsnow.net
Way back in 2009, I attempted to predict the snowfall for the 2009-2010 season ( The 2009-2010 Winter Forecast). I was way off: I guessed 450 inches, but in fact (you can see above) it was 634 inches. That was a good year! And that was another El Nino season. So this year may not be as epic as past years, but odds are it will still be very rideable throughout the winter. Comments |
Related: > predictions < environment Unrelated: books economics energy geopolitics lists mathematics science |
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| Wed Aug 15 22:37:13 2012 Eurozone How long will the Euro last? |
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| There has been a litany of bad news lately for the Eurozone.
For one thing, most Eurozone countries have had a crappy Q2, with many countries (particularly the most vulnerable such as Spain and Portugal) seeing a contraction. In general, people fear that a second recession may be about to hit the Eurozone. Greece is sputtering along. It barely avoided bankruptcy in its latest bond (treasury bill) sale, but also saw a contraction of over 6% in the second quarter. However, it is failing to keep up with fiscal reform promises it made in March, and is now asking for a two-year extension to meet bailout terms. What are the odds the Eurozone will survive? Personally, I think several countries (Greece and Portugal) are likely to leave on their own accord, and other countries (Spain) may be kicked out. The core of the Eurozone (countries using the Euro as currency) may remain--Germany, France, and others--but several countries will and should leave. Greece and Portugal have historically spent far more than they earned ( Portugal's record and Greece's record), and have usually devalued their currencies as an effective extra tax to catch up. Now that they are tied to the Euro, this extra taxation source has dried up, and their deficit spending can't be financed. In fact, instead of the ability to devalue their currency to raise money, Greece and Portugal are being hit with austerity measures instead. In a recession, this just makes the problem worse. Portugal is very upset about this, and rightly so. What do Greece and Portugal gain by staying in the Eurozone for the next 5-10 years? Nothing. In fact, staying in the Eurozone will probably push them into years of economic stagnation. I think Greece and Portugal are foolish to stick with the Euro! I'm sure many of them will come to the same conclusion. Over time, I don't see the Euro surviving, for exactly this reason: countries have historically used devaluation as a way to catch up with overspending. Being in the Eurozone denies countries this capability, and they have grown used to it. There is one way the Eurozone could survive: centralize taxation and spending. That is, countries in the Eurozone could not set their own budgets, but would instead send taxes in to a central agency, which would distribute the funds as well. Personally, I don't see that happening, since no country will give up both their tax receipts and their budget discretion. And so, over time, countries will drop out as they feel the need to devalue currencies. I'll give the Euro 10 more years as an independent currency! Comments |
Related: economics geopolitics > predictions < Unrelated: books energy environment lists mathematics science |
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| Thu Mar 24 22:46:19 2011 Bankrupt Portugal Another EU domino falls? |
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| With the
tsunami in Japan, and
continued unrest in the Mideast, it was easy to miss today's headlines that
Portugal's prime minister resigned and
the country needed an EU bailout to avoid default.
Furthermore, not only is Portugal very likely to need a bailout, it increased speculation that Spain may be next. Why did Portugal's prime minister resign? Because all the opposition parties and most of Portugal's organized labor opposed his austerity measures to get the budget under control. Rather than accept the required spending cuts and tax raises to fix the country's fiscal problems, there were strong protests to raise government wages instead. Obviously, that would just make the problem worse, however much the wage increases may be desired or even deserved. This followed a familiar pattern:
Now we see the same pattern in Portugal, and I and others believe Spain will be next. I'll make a prediction that Spain will ask for an EU bailout before the end of 2011. One option may be to let Portugal default! Countries have defaulted before ( Sovereign Bankruptcies). Portugal isn't a complete basket case, and defaulting would still put them in a position where they'd have to enact severe austerity measures, but they could rebuild on their own. A default may not be much worse than an EU bailout anyway, and may be healthy to remind investors that giving your money to governments is not a safe bet. This would raise the borrowing costs for all countries, which would also be a good thing. And it would be a strong message to Spain that it needs to get its own house in order, and not also rely on an EU bailout. But I don't think that will happen. Portugal and Spain will ask for, and receive, EU bailouts instead. Before we in the US start pointing fingers, remember that our own budget is pretty hosed as well. In fact, just yesterday it was noted that our federal disability funds are about to run out because they are being abused by many states. And even without people abusing disability benefits, scheduled spending means Medicare and Social Security will start to hit insolvency in 2017. In fact, Medicare is already running a deficit and is burning through the taxes of previous years. And like everyone facing crises in European countries, even though the mathematics make it obvious that we have to reduce Medicare and Social Security spending, many people don't want their benefits to go down. (However, the latest bipartisan efforts to address the problem are a very encouraging step.) The main learnings? First, deficit spending does eventually catch up to you. And second, if a country lets things get out of control, most people won't want to fix it, because it will mean they'll have less money during the austerity period. That means fixes get postponed until they are too late, and the recovery (if it happens) is much more severe. The main thing is to vote for representatives that will get the budget under control. Representatives are terrified of touching Medicare or Social Security because they think we'll vote them out. We have to let our reps know that we'll support responsible budget planning, even if it means reduced benefits, to avoid bankruptcy. Comments |
Related: economics geopolitics > predictions < Unrelated: books energy environment lists mathematics science |
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