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Mon Aug 30 21:29:19 2010
Prediction Checkpoint 2
How did I do on real estate?

Love shack!
Image courtesy of Oven Fresh (wiki)

In an earlier entry ( Prediction Checkpoint 1) I reviewed many of my blog predictions to date. My score? Roughly 7 out of 12--just better than 50%.

But that wasn't all of my predictions. In a blog post from last year ( The Dream Tour) I toured several properties and guessed what they would sell for. How did I do with my real estate predictions?

Offered at $499K, I said it was a steal.
Image courtesy of Redfin

First up was this view home on Queen Anne. It was listed for $499K at the time, was delisted and relisted, and finally sold for $458K. I didn't really make a prediction, but said it was "a steal" at $499K.

So I think I got this one wrong. It went for less than I expected.

Offered at $800K, I said lower 700's.
Image courtesy of Redfin

This was a nice place with a great view in Magnolia, which was listed at $800K. I said:

If it gets to the low 700s I think it will move--and I think the sellers are probably aware of that and would consider an offer in that range now!

Final sale price: $720K. I think I got that one right!

Offered at $495K, I didn't guess a sales price.
Image courtesy of Redfin

This was a fixer-upper with a view in West Seattle, listed at $495K. I said

this could be worth a lot more with some straightforward investment.

but I didn't actually quote a sales price. It sold for $450K. So I'll count this one as a miss.

Offered at $650K, I didn't guess a sales price.
Image courtesy of Redfin

Then there was a property with south Lake Washington waterfront, listed at $650K. It sold for $550K. Again, I didn't guess a sales price! So I have to count this one as a miss.

Offered at $795K, I said something between 650 and 750.
Image courtesy of Redfin

There was another waterfront property, this one a house on the Ballard locks, offered at $795K. I said:

I think it will start being attractive in the 650-700 range.

Sales price? $715K. So I think I got this one right.

Offered at $649K, I guessed in the mid- to upper 500's.
Image courtesy of Redfin

There was a nice house with a large lot on Beacon Hill, which was listed at $649K. I said:

I think a price in the mid- to upper-500s would be a bargain.

The actual sales price? $575K. So I'll say I got this one right too.

Offered at $479K, I guessed under $450K.
Image courtesy of Redfin

This was a cute home in Seward Park, listed at $479K. I said:

...something under $450K strikes me as a good price...

The sales price? $450K. I'll count that as a correct guess (I was within one dollar!).

Offered at $350K, I didn't guess a sales price.
Image courtesy of Redfin

This was a beat-up house in South Seattle, listed at $350K. I didn't guess a price.

It sold for $315K, so I'll count that one as a miss.

Still for sale! Was $750K, now $679K.
Image courtesy of Redfin

This one is waterfront property on the Puget Sound, which was listed at $750K. It is still listed today at $679K. I said:

...you may have some room to bargain the price down a bit more.

So I'll just not count that one. It hasn't sold, so I can't claim I was right, but the price is definitely dropping, as I predicted.

Offered at $699K, I said under $600K.
Image courtesy of Redfin

This was waterfront on Vashon Island, listed at $699K. I said:

It's possible that under $600K would get you a great waterfront location on Vashon...

Final sales price? $575K. So I'll say I got that one right!

Still for sale! Was $425K, now $417K.
Image courtesy of Redfin

And finally, this last property was my favorite! A beautiful waterfront home on just minutes from the Vashon ferry, listed at $425K. It went off the market for a long time. It just re-listed two weeks ago, now at $417K. Last year I said:

...this is probably a good deal in the $400K range, if there aren't serious problems.

Again, I won't count this one at all, since it hasn't sold. But the price is coming down!

By the way, this could be an amazing property! According to the listing, "The Seller is motivated and will finance...". If the foundations are okay this is really worth a look!

So that was it. Out of 11 properties, I got 5 right, 4 wrong, and 2 still haven't sold, so I won't count them. That means my final tally is 5 out of 9 correct for real estate, or 12 out of 21 overall.

So I won't quit my day job just yet, but I'm still batting over 50% on my predictions!

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