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| 2012 | |
| October | |
| Sun Oct 7 17:40:58 2012 Mt Baker Prediction |
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| Sun Oct 7 17:40:58 2012 Mt Baker Prediction How much snow will Mt Baker get in 2012-2013? |
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| Well, it is getting close to the 2012-2013 ski season. How much snow will Mt
Baker get? (I'm talking about the ski area).
I'm guessing around 600 inches this year. That's pretty good for most ski areas, but low for Mt Baker. Still, I think it will be a decent year, since although less precipitation is expected, it is supposed to stay cold. Historically, snowfall is influenced by ocean heating events such as El Nino (warmer than usual surface water in the tropical Pacific) and La Nina (colder than usual water). Oddly, the impacts aren't 100% predictable (you can get more or less snow with either) but generally they can influence predictions. The 2012-2013 season is expected to be an El Nino year, according to The Weather Centre. There are all sorts of El Nino years, apparently. This one is a "mainly west El Nino", meaning the warmer surface water is more to the west. That means as much to me as it does to you. Anyway, what have previous El Nina years looked like? Here is the list of total snowfall per year at Mt Baker, courtesy of bestsnow.net
Way back in 2009, I attempted to predict the snowfall for the 2009-2010 season ( The 2009-2010 Winter Forecast). I was way off: I guessed 450 inches, but in fact (you can see above) it was 634 inches. That was a good year! And that was another El Nino season. So this year may not be as epic as past years, but odds are it will still be very rideable throughout the winter. Comments |
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